The realistic MWSF 02 thread

PowerMacs
No G5 but Steve says they are coming "soon"
Same mother board as current
Same prices
Same vid card
Same case
RAM: 256,512, 512
HD: 60, 80, 90
867 MHz, 933 MHz, 1GHz, Dual 1GHz (?) or Dual 933 (?)
Super Drive across line

iMac
Same prices
Same vid card
Combo drive top end only
15" CRT and 14" TFT
G3 700, G3 800, G3 900, G3 1Ghz (?)
RAM 128 low / 256 high end
$100 increase in top TFT model
TFT model won't ship right away.

No new iBook
No new TiBook

OS 10.2

[ 11-23-2001: Message edited by: imacSE ]</p>

[quote]Originally posted by jamiemarshall:
<strong>

Do you think the revised G4 would sell very well if Steve hinted that G5s were coming soon? I don't.

J</strong><hr></blockquote>

By "soon" I meant months. I'm not saying he would talk about the G5s but it wouldn't surprise me if he did.

I can't remember Steve ever introducing a product and talking about its successor at the same time. It wouldn't make good business sense.

J

[quote]Originally posted by EmAn:
<strong>If the G5 doesn't come at MWSF I don't think Steve would say it's coming soon.</strong><hr></blockquote>

Fine. What do you think we can really expect at MWSF?

[ 11-23-2001: Message edited by: imacSE ]</p>

FASTEST: 1Gig G4 100GB HD
FASTER: 900MHz 80GB HD
FAST: 800MHz 60GB HD

DDR RAM, Processor daughtercard on all models has ZIF socket for additional processor, build to order as duals or via third party upgrade.

iMac2: 733MHz G4 slot loading DVD/CD-RW combo drive. Built into 15" LCD Studio Display (speakers built into legs)

iMac: Same stuff with speed bump G3 and entry level pricing

iBook & TiBook: unchanged until Tokyo

Realistic?

Okay, no G5. And some of you better get used to that idea or I'm afraid of a massive wrist-slitting ritual from some of you come MWSF!

G4 will break the GHz barrier (only about time!) and hard drive bumps.

Nothing on iBook or TiBook...they were just revved, for crying out loud! Some of you people actually thinking Apple is getting down to three month revision cycles are losing it.

A new iApp, dealing with digital photography.

The big star of the show will be a new iMac. It will be an LCD model and it will sport a combo drive. But no G4...just a high (800MHz or so) G3. But a combo drive will be an option, and it'll ship with a better video card.

The iMac will finally get its long-awaited redesign/revamp and we will all rejoice.

However, being Apple, they won't do the expected or what they SHOULD (that is, make it look all cool and white and glossy like it's laptop cousin, the iBook). No, they'll do something totally stupid to make it look weirder than it should, like a dark purple anondized enclosure or something completely out of left field that NOBODY IS ASKING FOR, when the answer is staring them right in the face and looks great: glossy, clean iBook white.

:rolleyes:

Mark my words. I'd bet my left lung that as cool as the new iMac will be, there will be one major shortcoming or glaring omission that will keep it from being the ultimate all-in-one (it'll come in an ugly color, it'll have a lame-ass, substandard video card, it won't have speakers built in, etc.).

It's Apple, folks. And as much as I love them and as cool as their stuff is (and at this point I'd never use anything else but a Mac), but fact is they have an IMPECCABLE record here lately that for every cool step forward, they take a half-step or full step backward in another area and drop the ball in some unbelievable, jaw-dropping way.

Just watch...

[ 11-23-2001: Message edited by: pscates ]</p>

hey pscates. I don't really case if the new iMac doesn't come with built in speakers. The one in the recent iMac is crap anyway ;)

Here's my prediction:

iMac - $799
Same form factor - only one version available
600 MHz PowerPC 750cxe
128 MB PC100 SDRAM (100 MHz bus)
Rage 128 w/16MB
30 GB ATA/66 drive
CD-RW
2 USB + 2 Firewire (400 Mbit/s)
100 MBit/s Ethernet
Airport optional

iMac DL (Digital Lifestyle) - $1299 to $1699
iPOD like form factor - 15 x 14 x 2 inches with white front and clear coat steel back
15.1 TFT screen
600, 733 MHz PowerPC 7440/7450 (no backside cache)
128, 256 MByte PC133 SDRAM (133 MHz bus)
Radeon w/32MB
40, 60 MByte ATA/66 drive
Combo, Superdrive opticals
2 USB + 2 Firewire (400 Mbit/s)
100 MBit/s
Airport optional

Power Macintosh G4 - $1699 to $2999
Same form factor - El Capitan case is 3 years old in MWSF02, how much more can they squeeze out of this thing? But I think they want to wait for MWNY02.
800, 933, 1067, 933x2 PowerPC 7460 w/2MB backside cache
256 to 512 MByte of PC2100 DDR SDRAM
GeForce 3 w/64 MB
60, 80, 100 GByte drives
Combo, Superdrive opticals
2 USB + 2 Firewire (800 Mbit/s)
Gigabit Ethernet
Airport optional

Some things to ponder:

1. I'm relatively skeptical that IBM will have anything faster than a 750 to 800 MHz PPC 750fx by Q1 02.

2. 600 to 733 MHz Moto 7440/7450 processors are readily available.

3. Motorola supposedly qualified their HiP 7 fab this past Summer, so a 7460 (Apollo) should be probable. 6 months to move an existing chip onto to a new process seems reasonable to me.

4. A TFT screen probably costs Apple half of what they sell it for. The rest of the costs are the form factor plastics and other support hardware (USB, power, ...) and 25% margin.

My thread wasn't good enough?

They will announce a whole slew of OSX apps including Macromedia Flash/Dreamweaver for OSX and Adobe Photoshop. FCP will be announced in 2 weeks. If they get the mainstream apps after MS Office, that is when the bug migration comes to move over to OSX fully for those still on OS9.

cheaper flat planel displays. reduced price tag on iPod to 299.

[quote]Originally posted by Matsu:
<strong>DUAL G5 iBOOK with SUPERDRIVE!!! all other models cancelled. Apple gets the prices down by having just one model with more performance than anything available in either the laptop or desktop space.

Starting at 999 Canadian with options up to 1999. :D :D :D :D :D :D </strong><hr></blockquote>

What's that, like $16 US :D

[quote]Originally posted by snitty:
<strong> Superdrives will never, I repeat, never be in the consumer machines. If they are I will eat my shoe.</strong><hr></blockquote>

Why won't they be in a consumer machine? The price on them is steadily dropping snd making your own DVD's to send your home movies to relatives and friends is going to be more and more attractive to a lot of people.

BTW What flavor is your shoe? :D

[quote]Originally posted by snitty:
<strong>Superdrives will never, I repeat, never be in the consumer machines. If they are I will eat my shoe. We may see a combo drive in the Ultimate config, but that is up in the air. </strong><hr></blockquote>

funny, because Steve Jobs said last year at the investor meeting that the imac would get the superdrive early 2002.

so shut up.

as far as "realistic" predictions

PowerMac G4 (7460)
867 Mhz, 1Ghz, 1.2 Ghz.
dual standard on one of those and an option on the others or standard on all
266 Mhz DDR Bus
256 MB RAM, 512 MB RAM on 2 others
Superdrive standard
Geforce 3 Standard/ Radeon 2 option
10/100/1000 Ethernet
4 PCI slots
2 5.25 inch external bays
new case design
airport standard
$1599, $1999, $2499
or something along those price points

iMac DV SE
15 inch LCD
new form factor
G4 733 standard
256 MB RAM standard
80GB HD standard
Superdrive standard
ATI radeon or geforce 2 mx integrated
10/100/1000 Ethernet
airport standard
$1299

iMac
15 inch crt
700 Mhz G3
128 MB RAM
40 GG HD
Combo drive
ATI Radeon or Geforce 2 mx integrated
10/100/1000 Ethernet
airport standard
$899

there you have it
:)

[quote]Originally posted by Leonis:
<strong>

Those prices are *very* unrealistic, especially to the highest model.

This is the Apple Computer Inc we are talking about. A f*cking cheap bastard. Do you think they are willing to sell their highend PowerMac for $1000 cheaper than the older one? No way!

...hm...my words seem kind of harsh, right?? <img src="graemlins/hmmm.gif" border="0" alt="[Hmmm]" />

[ 11-24-2001: Message edited by: Leonis ]</strong><hr></blockquote>

not at all.

my reasoning?

they are likely going to drop the lowend to 1599 IMO. the specs I posted did not justify a 1000 dollar increase between each model. would you pay 1000 to go from 256 MB RAM and a 867 G4 to a 1Ghz G4 and 512 MB RAM? hell no, so I made the middle 1999 and then I couldn't make it go to 3499 or even 2999 for the next one, it would be insane.

if it would make you happier add a dual 1 Ghz to the top at 2999 and keep the others single processors. they dropped the powerbooks significantly and they are pricing te iBook very competitvely I don't see why the desktops would not follow.

I think the iMac specs/prices are realistic though, whether they will happen I do not know

[quote]Originally posted by Jonathan:
<strong>*clap clap*

well done applenut.

i don't know about the bottom-line entry level crt iMac.

methinks we may go back to the old original Bondi pricing scheme</strong><hr></blockquote>

thank you thank you :)

only reason for the lowend imac is that schools eat em up. and its good to have something sub-1000

[quote]Originally posted by Leonis:
<strong>wouldn't it be better if the low end iMac is selling at 799?</strong><hr></blockquote>

Of course it would. But Apple is known for not always doing the right thing when it comes to pricing.

[quote]Originally posted by applenut:
<strong>

yea, but the 799 imac they have now is horrendous. it really is a joke. 400 Mhz G3 in late 2001? they don't seem to make a decent system with big enough margins at that price point without killing it feature wise. for the extra hundred bucks they can offer a bit of a better system for a small price more before jumping to 1299</strong><hr></blockquote>

The 799 version is using 500Mhz G3 btw...that 400Mhz iMac is sold for 499 in NY area...

[quote]Originally posted by Leonis:
<strong>

The 799 version is using 500Mhz G3 btw...that 400Mhz iMac is sold for 499 in NY area...</strong><hr></blockquote>

true. got confused... still sad though.

those 499 iMacs just became available in stores here and I admit I am very tempted to get one.

[quote]Originally posted by mikerally:
<strong>Well at least the $799 iMac comes with a better video card than it's 400Mhz predescesor, a G3 500Mhz with a 16MB Rage Ultra may not give the best graphics performance, but it is at least capable of pulling it's weight, making most games reasonably playable.

It's very possible to see a Superdrive on an iMac at least before the end of 2002 - don't rely in Steve's guess of early 2002, remember he said Mac OS X 10.0 would be out Summer 2000.</strong><hr></blockquote>

the iMac is barely capable of playing today's 3d games nevermind tomorrow's. that's not good, especially when the graphic card can't be upgraded.

Superdrive should have no problem being in the high end imac come January. retail you can already get it for 500 and maybe less now. now think what apple must get it for now. maybe 250-300 bucks?

[quote]Originally posted by applenut:
<strong>Superdrive should have no problem being in the high end imac come January. retail you can already get it for 500 and maybe less now. now think what apple must get it for now. maybe 250-300 bucks?</strong><hr></blockquote>

Yeah, but what about slot loading? I doubt there's any slot loading Superdrives around and Steve won't have an iMac that's got a tray loading drive.

I just hope the high-end G4 has at least a dual-processor option. It's absurd for Apple to simultaneously talk about how their target market needs two chips and ship their fastest machine with one. Also, unless we see a fairly serious upgrade in the incidentals (HDD, RAM, optical drives, USB/FW) I think the prices on the top two machines should come down a couple hundred bucks.

FYI: 900 MHz is not a multiple of 133 MHz.

The case (function)as such is close to perfect :-)
If they add one more front bay and also front USB/Firewire sockets like the Sony Vaio

The case styling is amtter of preference, if they could do it "appear" to be slimmer along the the lines of the portable lines.

<strong>Originally posted by rickag:
Question: Do you think the MPC7460 in the Powermac will be on 0.13 die?</strong>

By definition yes. A MPC7460 is a 7450 fabbed on a 0.13u process. If they stick with 256 KB on-die L2, the 7560 would be ~55 sq mm. If they use 512 KB on-die L2, probably around ~80 sq mm. Straight scaling will give you pretty close estimates for die sizes, voltages and clock rate.

Whether they stick with the same packaging is a different story. Moto could solve the CPU upgrade problems by simply moving to PGA packaging like in the x86 world. But the odds are they will stick with the same old 29x29 mm BGA they've been using.

<strong>If so wouldn't it be likely the high end could clock to 1.3 to 1.4GHz?</strong>

It's a farm. High quality ears of corn (chips) are rarer than average and low quality ears of corn (chips). Here's a demonstrative example, not meant to be accurate. Hopefully I can do the formatting right:

[code]
GHz

1.4 | x
1.3 | x x
1.2 | x x x
1.1 | x x x x
1.0 | x x x x x
0.9 | x x x x x x
0.8 | x x x x x x
0.7 | x x x x x
-- -- -- -- -- -- --
1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

Core Voltage
</pre><hr></blockquote>

The "x" marks represent what the chips on wafer can run at. The 1.3 and 1.4 MHz chips would be very few, and would have to run at higher voltage. Like die size, power consumption scales by the square of the ratio of voltage increase or decrease, and as I recall, power consumption increases linearly with clock rate. So, a 1.4 GHz part would be very expensive because there are few of them (only 5 or 10 chips per wafer among hundreds in a wafer), and will run a lot hotter than a chip in the middle of the pack (1.8/1.5^2 = 44% for voltage increase plus another 40% for clock rate increase from a 1.5V 1 GHz chip).

Motorola's job as time goes on is to move the "x" marks to the left and to the top of the chart, just as good farmers will gradually learn how to work their farms to produce the best quality crops (yield). How those axes line up is all up to Motorola. I'd estimate about 60 to 90% clock rate increases for a process reduction of 30%. They are at 867 now, and getting 1.4 GHz is probably something they couldn't do off the bat. Perhaps in 6 months of refinement.

If they advance the process in some significant way, all bets are off.

<strong>Originally posted by DrBoar:
The case styling is a matter of preference, if they could do it "appear" to be slimmer along the the lines of the portable lines.</strong>

I'm hoping more along the lines of the iPOD myself. I don't like the curvy look of the El Capitan case much anymore. One design feature they probably need to improve is thermo control...

And er, shouldn't we have someone act as a referee to keep track of our predictions for us after MWSF02 is completed? We should have some sort rating for predicative ability beneath our names ;)

[ 12-06-2001: Message edited by: THT ]</p>

Et Tu Rickag? Then rumors fall!

THT found the article, it was MacCentral;

<a href="http://maccentral.macworld.com/news/0112/04.motorola.php" target="_blank">http://maccentral.macworld.com/news/0112/04.motorola.php</a>

[quote]"One of the stated goals for Motorola's Apollo part was to move the desktop G4 to a 0.18-micron SOI manufacturing process (HiP6 .18-micron SOI).......technology that will provide a twenty to thirty percent performance gain.
"<hr></blockquote>

Just changing to SOI according to this "Motorola spokesperson" would take the G4 to 1.0 to 1.1GHz. I threw in the extra 0.3GHz for reduction to the 0.13 die.

I have been under the impression, apparently miskaken, Apollo would debut manufactured on HiP7. It is notable the MacCentral article did not mention HiP7, only SOI and HiP6.

Conclusion: rumors cause confusion,